Schedule of Potential Main Modifications
(3) Annexe 1 – MM114 Appendix 1 – Local Development Plan Housing Trajectory
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Plan Period |
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New Homes |
HELAA Ref. |
Policy Ref |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
Year 6 |
Year 7 |
Year 8 |
Year 9 |
Year 10 |
Year 11 |
Year 12 |
Year 13 |
Year 14 |
Year 15 |
Year 16 |
Year 17 |
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Completions (2016/17 - 2020/21) |
977 |
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150 |
213 |
246 |
200 |
168 |
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Extant permissions (as at 1st April 2021) and minus non-implementation discount (10% of permission supply) |
1036 |
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155 |
261 |
230 |
210 |
180 |
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Windfall |
434 |
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62 |
62 |
62 |
62 |
62 |
62 |
62 |
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Local Plan Allocations |
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Brownfield Land within Brentwood Urban Area / Settlement Boundary |
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Ford Headquarters and Council Depot, Warley - northern and southern site |
133 |
081 / 117A / 117B |
R04 |
25 |
50 |
58 |
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Brentwood Railway Station Car Park |
200 |
002 |
R10 |
100 |
100 |
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Westbury Road Car Park, Westbury Road, Brentwood |
45 |
039 |
R11 |
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45 |
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Land at Hunter House, Western Road, Brentwood |
48 |
041 |
R12 |
24 |
24 |
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Chatham Way / Crown Street Car Park Brentwood |
31 |
040 |
R13 |
31 |
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William Hunter Way |
300 |
102 |
R14 |
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300 |
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Wates Way Industrial Estate, Ongar Road, Brentwood |
46 |
003 |
R15 |
23 |
23 |
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Brownfield Land within Brentwood Urban Area / Settlement Boundary Total |
803 |
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48 |
118 |
58 |
24 |
355 |
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100 |
100 |
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Greenfield Land within Brentwood Urban Area / Settlement Boundary |
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Land at Priests Lane, Brentwood |
75 |
044 / 178 |
R19 |
30 |
45 |
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Greenfield Land within Brentwood Urban Area / Settlement Boundary Total |
75 |
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30 |
45 |
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Brownfield Land within settlement boundary – Other Locations |
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West Horndon Industrial Estates |
580 |
020 / 021 /152 |
R02 |
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80 |
75 |
95 |
100 |
100 |
65 |
65 |
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Brownfield Land within settlement boundary – Other Locations |
580 |
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80 |
75 |
95 |
100 |
100 |
65 |
65 |
Green Belt Land – Edge of Brentwood Urban Area |
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Land north of Shenfield |
825 |
034 / 158 / 235 / 087 / 263 / 276 |
R03 |
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50 |
100 |
125 |
125 |
125 |
125 |
100 |
75 |
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Land East of Nags Head Lane, Brentwood |
125 |
032 |
R06 |
25 |
25 |
50 |
25 |
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Sow and Grow Nursery, Ongar Road, Pilgrims Hatch |
38 |
010 |
R07 |
38 |
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Land Adjacent to Carmel, Mascalls Lane, Warley |
9 |
027 |
R08 |
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9 |
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Land west of Warley Hill, Pastoral Way, Warley |
43 |
083 |
R09 |
20 |
23 |
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Land off Doddinghurst Road, either side of A12 |
200 |
023A / 23B |
R16 |
50 |
50 |
50 |
50 |
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Green Belt Land – Edge of Brentwood Urban Area Total |
1,240 |
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142 |
148 |
200 |
200 |
125 |
125 |
125 |
100 |
75 |
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Green Belt Land – Edge of Ingatestone |
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Land south of Ingatestone, Ingatestone |
161 |
128 / 106 |
R21 |
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50 |
60 |
51 |
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Land Adjacent to Ingatestone By-pass |
57 |
079A |
R22 |
17 |
40 |
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Green Belt Land – Edge of Ingatestone Total |
218 |
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67 |
100 |
51 |
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Green Belt Land – Larger Villages |
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Brizes Corner Field, Blackmore Road, Kelvedon Hatch |
23 |
194 |
R23 |
12 |
11 |
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Land off Stocks Lane, Kelvedon Hatch |
40 |
075B |
R24 |
20 |
20 |
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Land north of Woollard Way, Blackmore |
40 |
077 |
R25 |
20 |
20 |
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Land south of Redrose Lane, north of Orchard Piece, Blackmore |
30 |
076 |
R26 |
10 |
20 |
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Green Belt Land – Larger Villages Total |
133 |
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62 |
71 |
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Strategic Allocation – Dunton Hills Garden Village |
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Dunton Hills Garden Village |
1,650 |
200 |
R01 |
150 |
250 |
250 |
250 |
250 |
250 |
250 |
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Strategic Allocation – Dunton Hills Garden Village Total |
1,650 |
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150 |
250 |
250 |
250 |
250 |
250 |
250 |
Allocation Total |
4,699 |
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349 |
482 |
309 |
224 |
710 |
450 |
470 |
550 |
525 |
315 |
315 |
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Total Housing Provision |
7,146 |
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150 |
213 |
246 |
200 |
168 |
155 |
610 |
712 |
519 |
404 |
772 |
512 |
532 |
612 |
587 |
377 |
377 |
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Housing requirement by year |
7,752 |
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300 |
300 |
300 |
300 |
300 |
300 |
300 |
300 |
400 |
400 |
400 |
400 |
400 |
400 |
984 |
984 |
984 |
Performance against requirement within individual year |
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-150 |
-87 |
-54 |
-100 |
-132 |
-145 |
310 |
412 |
119 |
4 |
372 |
112 |
132 |
212 |
-397 |
-607 |
-607 |
Housing provision cumulative total |
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150 |
363 |
609 |
809 |
977 |
1,132 |
1,742 |
2,454 |
2,973 |
3,377 |
4,149 |
4,661 |
5,193 |
5,805 |
6,392 |
6,769 |
7,146 |
Housing requirement cumulative total |
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300 |
600 |
900 |
1,200 |
1,500 |
1,800 |
2,100 |
2,400 |
2,800 |
3,200 |
3,600 |
4,000 |
4,400 |
4,800 |
5,784 |
6,768 |
7,752 |
Cumulative total deficit/suplus |
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-150 |
-237 |
-291 |
-391 |
-523 |
-668 |
-358 |
54 |
173 |
177 |
549 |
661 |
793 |
1005 |
608 |
1 |
-606 |
5 year supply calculations |
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Five year supply calculation at adoption (2021/22) Includes 20% buffer from Housing Delivery Test and accounts for deficit (446) from start of plan period to year before adoption (2016/17 to 2020/21) which has been annualised over the remainder of the plan period (12 years) (2021/22 to 2032/33) (Liverpool approach) |
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Total supply 2021/22 to 2025/26 |
2,400 |
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Local Plan annual housing requirement (2021/22 to 2025/26) |
1,700 |
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Deficit (2016/17 to 2020/21) ÷ 12 years x 5 years |
-218 |
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Housing Delivery Test 20% buffer (Local Plan annual requirement + deficit) |
384 |
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Total five year requirement (with undersupply + 20% buffer) |
2,302 |
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Annual five year requirement (Total requirement ÷ 5 years (rounded) |
460 |
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Five year supply (years) = Total supply ÷ Annual five year requirement |
5.21 |
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