Addendum of Focussed Changes to the Pre-Submission Local Plan (Regulation 19)

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Addendum of Focussed Changes to the Pre-Submission Local Plan (Regulation 19)

Policy R01 (I): Dunton Hills Garden Village Strategic Allocation (page 252)

Representation ID: 26813

Received: 26/11/2019

Respondent: Tesco Stores Limited

Agent: GL Hearn

Legally compliant? No

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? No

Representation Summary:

We advise BBC to rethink its proposed strategy which has over the course of three drafts increased housing allocations at Dunton Hills Garden Village (DHGV). Any delay in implementing DHGV in line with the revised housing trajectory would result in housing shortfalls. The objections from Basildon and Thurrock Council are clear indicators that there has been insufficient engagement with adjoining Local Authorities over important cross boundary issues. 'The Consolidated Changes' should not be adopted until all concerning Local Authorities have discharged their duties to cooperate [in addressing all the issues relating to DHGV].

Change suggested by respondent:

recommend that the Sawyers Hall Farm site (ref: 024a and 024b) is allocated as this site is available for development now.

Full text:

INTRODUCTION
1.1 These Representations are submitted to Brentwood Borough Council (BBC) in response to the 'Addendum of Focussed Changes to the Pre-Submission Local Plan (Regulation 19) Local Plan' and Brentwood Local Plan Pre-submission Document (February 2019) (henceforth referred to as 'the Consolidated Changes'). The addendum was published on Tuesday 15 October for consultation and will close on Tuesday 26 November 2019. These Representations have been prepared by GL Hearn, on behalf of Tesco. Tesco has a land interest at Sawyers Hall Farm (also referred to as Hopefield Animal Sanctuary) (site ref: 024a and 024b).
1.2 Firstly, please note that GL Hearn has on two previous occasions objected to the subdivision of the site (Sawyers Hall Farm) into two separate parcels. This has resulted in the site being subject to two separate site appraisals (please see Paragraph 2.46 'Representations to Brentwood Local Plan, dated 18/03/19' AND Paragraph 2.30 'Representations to Brentwood Draft Local Plan Proffered Site Allocation, dated 12/03/2018). The failure to resolve this matter and amend the Sustainability Appraisal Report (Consolidated) (October 2019) amounts to a failure to follow local plan preparation procedures. If BBC does not revise 'the Consolidated Changes' prior to resubmission, then GL Hearn asks that the appointed Inspector discharges his/her duty under Regulation 23 of the Town and Country Planning (Local Planning) (England) Regulations 2012 and recommends that BBC conducts a thorough and balanced assessment of the site, taking into account of the site's full potential for a housing allocation within the plan.
1.3 This document provides our commentary on the proposed 'Consolidated Changes' and accompanying 'Sustainability Appraisal Report Addendum' dated October 2019. The purpose of this report is to assess 'the Consolidated Changes' against the legal and procedural requirements as set out in the Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act 2004 (henceforth referred to as 'the Act'), Town and Country Planning (Local Planning)(England)(Amendment) Regulations 2012 (henceforth referred to as 'the Regulations') and the 'four tests' of 'soundness' as detailed in Paragraph 35 of the NPPF (2019). This report does not intend to repeat the arguments made from previous representations and therefore we ask that this report is read in conjunction with the representations made on 18/03/2019 (Regulation 19), 26/03/2016 (Draft Local Plan Regulation 18) and the representations on the 'Strategic Growth Options Consultation' submitted on 17/02/2015.
1.4 We argue that 'the Consolidated Changes' have not been prepared in accordance with legal and procedural requirements. The policies contained within the plan have not been positively prepared,
Representations to Brentwood Local Development Plan - Addendum of Focussed Changes to the Pre-Submission Local Plan (Regulation
19) (October 2019) Tesco Stores Ltd, Brentwood CM15 9BZ (FINAL)
GL Hearn Page 5 of 14
nor have they been justified, or if adopted would be effective in delivering enough housing to meet the Borough's Local Housing Needs (LHN). 'The Consolidated Changes' are not consistent with national policy. GL Hearn concludes that upon examination an Inspector would not find the plan 'sound'. The delay in adopting a 'sound' plan would very likely leave the Borough vulnerable to sporadic and unsustainable patterns of development and therefore we urge BBC to make early revisions before submitting the plan to the Secretary of State.
1.5 We advise BBC to rethink its proposed strategy which has over the course of three drafts increased housing allocations at Dunton Hills Garden Village (DHGV). The Draft Local Plan 2018 (Regulation 18) allocated 2,500 dwellings which increased [without justification] to 2,700 dwellings in February 2019 (Regulation 19). 'The Consolidated Changes' proposes to increase the allocation at DHGV to 2,770 dwellings despite previous objections. The SA Report Addendum (2019) identifies the following negative impacts relating to the spatial strategy:
* 'The Consolidated Changes' would lead to an increase in car movements through Brentwood Town Centre Air Quality Management Area (AQMA) (located 6km away) (Paragraph 2.2.5 of Sustainability Report Addendum, October 2019). It should be noted that concerns over congestion within the urban area was a key reason why the number of dwellings allocated at sites R18 & R19 had been reduced [by 20 and 30 dwellings respectively]. The evidence shows that the reallocation of 50 dwellings from the urban area to DHGV results in no net improvement to the levels of congestion or air quality within the urban area.
* 'The Consolidated Changes' would impact on the Government's plans to reduce roadside nitrogen dioxide concentrations along the A127 corridor (Paragraph 2.2.10 and 2.211 of Sustainability Report Addendum, October 2019),
* 'The Consolidated Changes' would have a greater impact on sensitive biodiversity assets (Paragraph 2.3.1) and cause "significant negative effects" on land with high performing landscape and Greenbelt attributes (Paragraph 2.10.4 - 2.10.5 of Sustainability Report Addendum, October 2019),
* 'The Consolidated Changes' would reallocate housing away from the Brentwood/Shenfield Urban Area where the demand for housing is greatest and where it is near existing community and transport infrastructure THEN direct 35% of the Boroughs housing allocation to a single 257 ha Greenfield site which is heavily dependent on the timing and delivery of expensive infrastructure. The spatial strategy presents a greater risk to the housing trajectory and this is discussed in section 2 below. (Paragraph 2.9.1 - 2.9.4 of Sustainability Report Addendum, October 2019).
Representations to Brentwood Local Development Plan - Addendum of Focussed Changes to the Pre-Submission Local Plan (Regulation
19) (October 2019) Tesco Stores Ltd, Brentwood CM15 9BZ (FINAL)
GL Hearn Page 6 of 14
FOCUSSED CHANGE 1: POLICY R01 (I): DUNTON HILLS GARDEN VILLAGE STRATEGIC ALLOCATION
National Planning Policy Context - Tests for 'Soundness'
2.1 We acknowledge the Council's adoption of the new higher LHN figure of 454 dwellings per annum (dpa). The requirement equates to 2,270 net dpa in years 1 to 5. Paragraph 73(c) of the NPPF (2019) dictates that where there has been a significant under delivery of housing over the previous three years BBC should include a 20% buffer (moved forward from years 6 to 15 in the plan period). To comply with the NPPF (2019) and for 'the Consolidated Changes' to be found 'sound' BBC must identify a supply of specific and deliverable sites for years 1 to 5 with a capacity for 2,725 net dwellings (545 dpa).
2.2 Appendix 1 'Schedule of Focussed Changes to Brentwood Pre-Submission Local Plan' of 'The Consolidated Changes' (Page 7) provides a breakdown of the site allocation for the plan period. The method used to calculate the 'Allocation Total' does not accord with the methodology stated in the NPPF (2019). Paragraph 22 of the NPPF (2019) states that Plans should look ahead over a minimum of 15 years from adoption and therefore the completions included for years 2016/17 and 2017/18 (363 net homes or 5% of the allocation total) should be discounted as the plan has not yet been adopted and is unlikely to be adopted until after 2021.
2.3 The 'Allocation Total' includes 926 net homes with extant permissions as of 01/04/2018. The NPPF (2019) Part (a), page 66 provides one such definition of deliverable: "sites which do not involve major development and have planning permission, and all sites with detailed planning permission, should be considered deliverable until permission expires, unless there is clear evidence that homes will not be delivered within five years"
2.4 'The Consolidated Changes' does not mention when the extant permissions were granted therefore it is impossible to know when they will expire or likely be implemented. It would be reasonable to assume that most [if not all] 926 dwellings included within the extant permissions had been granted circa. 18 months prior to April 2018 (i.e. granted around October 2016). The expiration or implementation of all 926 dwellings should have occurred around October 2019. Since October 2019 precedes the adoption of the local plan then 926 dwellings should be discounted from the 'Allocation Total'. Unless BBC can provide evidence that the permissions for all 926 dwellings will still be extant at the point that the Local Plan is adopted then 926 dwellings should be discounted from the 'Allocation Total'.
Representations to Brentwood Local Development Plan - Addendum of Focussed Changes to the Pre-Submission Local Plan (Regulation
19) (October 2019) Tesco Stores Ltd, Brentwood CM15 9BZ (FINAL)
GL Hearn Page 7 of 14
2.5 Paragraph 70 of the NPPF (2019) states that windfall sites should only be included in the anticipated housing calculation if there is compelling evidence to suggest they are a reliable source of supply. Compelling evidence should be realistic having regard to (i) the strategic housing land availability assessment, (ii) expected future trends (iii) historic windfall delivery rates. Paragraph 4.17 of The Brentwood Local Plan Pre-submission Document (February 2019) and Housing and Economic Land Availability Assessment (2018) provides the basis for the projected supply of 410 dwellings on windfall sites. The allocation of windfall sites is based exclusively on past delivery records and has not had regard to either (i) land availability or (ii) the impact of future trends affecting the delivery of housing on windfall sites. In the absence of compelling evidence 410 dwellings should be discounted from the 'Allocation Total'.
2.6 Table 1 below provides a revised 'Allocation Total' for the plan period which correctly discounts (1) 'Completions 2016/2017/18' (2) 'Extant permissions' and (3) 'Windfall Allowances'. The Revised 'Allocation Total' in Table 1 has been formulated using the correct method defined in Paragraphs 22 and 70, and Page 66, Part (a) of the NPPF (2019).
[Table 1: see attachment]
2.7 Table 2 provides a revision to the housing trajectory for the plan period which appropriately commences in 2021/2020 [in line with the correct method defined in Paragraph 22 of the NPPF (2019)]. The delivery rates for DHGV has been reduced to reflect the likely rates of delivery for a strategic site of this kind. Based on empirical evidence undertaken by Savills on behalf of Barret Homes (see Urban Extensions - Assessment of Delivery Rates, October 2014) DHGV may only deliver up to 120 dpa. The figures contained in Table 2 below represents the highest expected yield pa. The expected delivery rate of up to 120 dpa is supported by observations of 78 urban extensions on greenfield sites. 32% of case studies had been located within the south east of England and are an accurate proxy for estimating expected housing delivery rates at DHGV. BBC has not provided any evidence to suggest that delivery rates will exceed 120 dpa and therefore the revised housing trajectory in table 2 should be 'material' when assessing the 5 year housing land supply and the overall 'soundness' of 'The Consolidated Changes'.
[Table 2: See attachment]
2.8 Short term: 'The Consolidated Changes' must identify a supply of specific and deliverable sites capable of providing 545 dpa in years 1 to 5. Table 1 demonstrates that the Plan would fall short in meeting LHN in years 1 and 2 by a significant margin (-429 and -274 dwellings respectively).
2.9 Long term: 'The Consolidated Changes' would fall short in allocating a suitable number of housing sites over the plan period by 3,177 dwellings (see Table 2).
Local Plan Legal Compliance
Significant cross boundary impacts
2.10 Section 33A of the Act and Paragraph 24 of the NPPF (2019) imposes a duty on BBC to cooperate with adjoining Local Authorities on issues that would have significant and/or cross boundary impacts on other areas. The duty imposed on BBC requires constructive and active engagement on an on-going basis. Cooperation between adjoining Local Authorities must take place before 'The Consolidated Changes' are submitted to the Secretary of State for examination.
2.11 DHGV is located within close proximity to the administrative boundaries of Basildon and Thurrock Council. Both Councils have objected to the allocation of 2,700 homes in previous consultations. The objections raised are very likely to intensify following the allocation of an additional 70 homes at DHGV. Basildon Council made the following objection during the March 2019 (Regulation 19) consultation:
"Basildon Council would like to seek assurances written into Policy R01(II) that it will be invited by Brentwood Council to become more involved in the detailed design and delivery of the new village.
This will ensure that the strategic and cross-boundary impacts covered by the Duty to Cooperate and raised during the Council's response to the Plan at Regulation 18 and 19 stages are managed effectively during the development's implementation stages (assuming it is considered sound), alongside the Basildon Borough Local Plan's own implementation. Delivery of DHGV will commence in 2022/23 at a rate of 100 homes per annum, climbing to 300 homes per annum by 2026/27. This seems overly optimistic given that the allocation is currently within Green Belt, requires masterplanning and will need to go through a planning application and elements of the condition discharge process before development can commence.
No evidence is provided as to how the housing trajectory has been developed. No evidence or any form of a development framework/ masterplan for DHGV explains how the proposed accelerated rate of delivery will be possible. The Plan and the Transport Assessment fails to investigate the possible impacts on Basildon's road and rail infrastructure arising from commuters or other road users choosing to access facilities within the Basildon Borough instead.
The need for new connections into Basildon was not mentioned as being necessary to make it sustainable. No evidence was present to demonstrate that DHGV's growth demands have been evaluated in combination with the projected demands from Basildon Local Plan. The Plan should not assume that such growth can just be absorbed by the nearby infrastructure and services in Basildon and investment through developer contributions".
2.12 Details of the other objections from neighbouring Local Authorities have been reproduced in Box 2.2, on page 9 of the SA Report Addendum (October 2019).
2.13 The objections from Basildon and Thurrock Council are clear indicators that there has been insufficient engagement with adjoining Local Authorities over important cross boundary issues. 'The Consolidated Changes' should not be adopted until all concerning Local Authorities have discharged their duties to cooperate [in addressing all the issues relating to DHGV] as required by the Act and NPPF (2019).
Unmet housing need
2.14 BBC confirm that adjoining Local Authorities are unwilling and unable to take any identified housing need from the Borough.
CONCLUSION
3.1 We therefore conclude that additional work is still required in order to make the 'The Consolidated Changes' 'sound' and legally compliant. BBC must increase the number of allocations for housing in sustainable locations and preferably near the urban area. BBC must address the Boroughs' short-term housing needs (5 year housing land supply) and long-term LHN for the entirety of the plan in order to be considered 'sound'. Therefore to address this matter we recommend that the Sawyers Hall Farm site (ref: 024a and 024b) is allocated as this site is available for development now. Table 2 (above) provides a 'best case' housing forecast and shows the greatest housing shortfall in years 1 and 2. Any delay in implementing DHGV in line with the revised housing trajectory (see table 1 and 2) would result in housing shortfalls in years 3 to 5 and potentially the remainder of the plan period. The planning for DHGV will require a substantial amount and the timely delivery of new infrastructure to address the impact of development and overcome the objections raised by consultees and adjoining Local Authorities. We have demonstrated categorically that the implementation of DHGV will not correspond to the Council's own housing trajectory. The Sawyers Hall Farm site would support the delivery of up to 450 new homes in years 1 and 2 and would contribute significantly towards helping BBC meet its local development needs and preparing a 'sound' Local Plan for timely adoption.
3.2 This report highlighted the risks posed by the current strategy in meeting the LHN over the period of the plan. 'The Consolidated Changes' have not been prepared in accordance with legal and procedural requirements set out in the Act and NPPF (2019). The policies contained within the plan have not been positively prepared, nor have they been justified, or if adopted would be effective in delivering enough housing to meet the Borough's Local Housing Needs (LHN). GL Hearn concludes that the plan [if not changed in accordance with recommendation to increase housing allocation closer to the urban area) would not be found 'sound' by the appointed Inspector.

Object

Addendum of Focussed Changes to the Pre-Submission Local Plan (Regulation 19)

Sustainability Appraisal

Representation ID: 26824

Received: 26/11/2019

Respondent: Tesco Stores Limited

Agent: GL Hearn

Legally compliant? No

Sound? No

Duty to co-operate? No

Representation Summary:

Risk in not meeting the LHN. Flaw in calculation allocation total in appendix 1: The NPPF states Plan should look ahead of 15 years from adoption, therefore completions for year 2016/17, 17/18 (363 net homes) should be discounted. Removed 926 extant permissions from the 'allocation total' unless the Council can provide evidence that they would still be extant at the point the Plan is adopted. Similarly, unless there is compelling evidence to suggest they are a reliable source of supply, the 410 windfall allowance should be removed from the allocation total.

Change suggested by respondent:

Revise Allocation Total for Plan period as suggested.

Full text:

INTRODUCTION
1.1 These Representations are submitted to Brentwood Borough Council (BBC) in response to the 'Addendum of Focussed Changes to the Pre-Submission Local Plan (Regulation 19) Local Plan' and Brentwood Local Plan Pre-submission Document (February 2019) (henceforth referred to as 'the Consolidated Changes'). The addendum was published on Tuesday 15 October for consultation and will close on Tuesday 26 November 2019. These Representations have been prepared by GL Hearn, on behalf of Tesco. Tesco has a land interest at Sawyers Hall Farm (also referred to as Hopefield Animal Sanctuary) (site ref: 024a and 024b).
1.2 Firstly, please note that GL Hearn has on two previous occasions objected to the subdivision of the site (Sawyers Hall Farm) into two separate parcels. This has resulted in the site being subject to two separate site appraisals (please see Paragraph 2.46 'Representations to Brentwood Local Plan, dated 18/03/19' AND Paragraph 2.30 'Representations to Brentwood Draft Local Plan Proffered Site Allocation, dated 12/03/2018). The failure to resolve this matter and amend the Sustainability Appraisal Report (Consolidated) (October 2019) amounts to a failure to follow local plan preparation procedures. If BBC does not revise 'the Consolidated Changes' prior to resubmission, then GL Hearn asks that the appointed Inspector discharges his/her duty under Regulation 23 of the Town and Country Planning (Local Planning) (England) Regulations 2012 and recommends that BBC conducts a thorough and balanced assessment of the site, taking into account of the site's full potential for a housing allocation within the plan.
1.3 This document provides our commentary on the proposed 'Consolidated Changes' and accompanying 'Sustainability Appraisal Report Addendum' dated October 2019. The purpose of this report is to assess 'the Consolidated Changes' against the legal and procedural requirements as set out in the Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act 2004 (henceforth referred to as 'the Act'), Town and Country Planning (Local Planning)(England)(Amendment) Regulations 2012 (henceforth referred to as 'the Regulations') and the 'four tests' of 'soundness' as detailed in Paragraph 35 of the NPPF (2019). This report does not intend to repeat the arguments made from previous representations and therefore we ask that this report is read in conjunction with the representations made on 18/03/2019 (Regulation 19), 26/03/2016 (Draft Local Plan Regulation 18) and the representations on the 'Strategic Growth Options Consultation' submitted on 17/02/2015.
1.4 We argue that 'the Consolidated Changes' have not been prepared in accordance with legal and procedural requirements. The policies contained within the plan have not been positively prepared,
Representations to Brentwood Local Development Plan - Addendum of Focussed Changes to the Pre-Submission Local Plan (Regulation
19) (October 2019) Tesco Stores Ltd, Brentwood CM15 9BZ (FINAL)
GL Hearn Page 5 of 14
nor have they been justified, or if adopted would be effective in delivering enough housing to meet the Borough's Local Housing Needs (LHN). 'The Consolidated Changes' are not consistent with national policy. GL Hearn concludes that upon examination an Inspector would not find the plan 'sound'. The delay in adopting a 'sound' plan would very likely leave the Borough vulnerable to sporadic and unsustainable patterns of development and therefore we urge BBC to make early revisions before submitting the plan to the Secretary of State.
1.5 We advise BBC to rethink its proposed strategy which has over the course of three drafts increased housing allocations at Dunton Hills Garden Village (DHGV). The Draft Local Plan 2018 (Regulation 18) allocated 2,500 dwellings which increased [without justification] to 2,700 dwellings in February 2019 (Regulation 19). 'The Consolidated Changes' proposes to increase the allocation at DHGV to 2,770 dwellings despite previous objections. The SA Report Addendum (2019) identifies the following negative impacts relating to the spatial strategy:
* 'The Consolidated Changes' would lead to an increase in car movements through Brentwood Town Centre Air Quality Management Area (AQMA) (located 6km away) (Paragraph 2.2.5 of Sustainability Report Addendum, October 2019). It should be noted that concerns over congestion within the urban area was a key reason why the number of dwellings allocated at sites R18 & R19 had been reduced [by 20 and 30 dwellings respectively]. The evidence shows that the reallocation of 50 dwellings from the urban area to DHGV results in no net improvement to the levels of congestion or air quality within the urban area.
* 'The Consolidated Changes' would impact on the Government's plans to reduce roadside nitrogen dioxide concentrations along the A127 corridor (Paragraph 2.2.10 and 2.211 of Sustainability Report Addendum, October 2019),
* 'The Consolidated Changes' would have a greater impact on sensitive biodiversity assets (Paragraph 2.3.1) and cause "significant negative effects" on land with high performing landscape and Greenbelt attributes (Paragraph 2.10.4 - 2.10.5 of Sustainability Report Addendum, October 2019),
* 'The Consolidated Changes' would reallocate housing away from the Brentwood/Shenfield Urban Area where the demand for housing is greatest and where it is near existing community and transport infrastructure THEN direct 35% of the Boroughs housing allocation to a single 257 ha Greenfield site which is heavily dependent on the timing and delivery of expensive infrastructure. The spatial strategy presents a greater risk to the housing trajectory and this is discussed in section 2 below. (Paragraph 2.9.1 - 2.9.4 of Sustainability Report Addendum, October 2019).
Representations to Brentwood Local Development Plan - Addendum of Focussed Changes to the Pre-Submission Local Plan (Regulation
19) (October 2019) Tesco Stores Ltd, Brentwood CM15 9BZ (FINAL)
GL Hearn Page 6 of 14
FOCUSSED CHANGE 1: POLICY R01 (I): DUNTON HILLS GARDEN VILLAGE STRATEGIC ALLOCATION
National Planning Policy Context - Tests for 'Soundness'
2.1 We acknowledge the Council's adoption of the new higher LHN figure of 454 dwellings per annum (dpa). The requirement equates to 2,270 net dpa in years 1 to 5. Paragraph 73(c) of the NPPF (2019) dictates that where there has been a significant under delivery of housing over the previous three years BBC should include a 20% buffer (moved forward from years 6 to 15 in the plan period). To comply with the NPPF (2019) and for 'the Consolidated Changes' to be found 'sound' BBC must identify a supply of specific and deliverable sites for years 1 to 5 with a capacity for 2,725 net dwellings (545 dpa).
2.2 Appendix 1 'Schedule of Focussed Changes to Brentwood Pre-Submission Local Plan' of 'The Consolidated Changes' (Page 7) provides a breakdown of the site allocation for the plan period. The method used to calculate the 'Allocation Total' does not accord with the methodology stated in the NPPF (2019). Paragraph 22 of the NPPF (2019) states that Plans should look ahead over a minimum of 15 years from adoption and therefore the completions included for years 2016/17 and 2017/18 (363 net homes or 5% of the allocation total) should be discounted as the plan has not yet been adopted and is unlikely to be adopted until after 2021.
2.3 The 'Allocation Total' includes 926 net homes with extant permissions as of 01/04/2018. The NPPF (2019) Part (a), page 66 provides one such definition of deliverable: "sites which do not involve major development and have planning permission, and all sites with detailed planning permission, should be considered deliverable until permission expires, unless there is clear evidence that homes will not be delivered within five years"
2.4 'The Consolidated Changes' does not mention when the extant permissions were granted therefore it is impossible to know when they will expire or likely be implemented. It would be reasonable to assume that most [if not all] 926 dwellings included within the extant permissions had been granted circa. 18 months prior to April 2018 (i.e. granted around October 2016). The expiration or implementation of all 926 dwellings should have occurred around October 2019. Since October 2019 precedes the adoption of the local plan then 926 dwellings should be discounted from the 'Allocation Total'. Unless BBC can provide evidence that the permissions for all 926 dwellings will still be extant at the point that the Local Plan is adopted then 926 dwellings should be discounted from the 'Allocation Total'.
Representations to Brentwood Local Development Plan - Addendum of Focussed Changes to the Pre-Submission Local Plan (Regulation
19) (October 2019) Tesco Stores Ltd, Brentwood CM15 9BZ (FINAL)
GL Hearn Page 7 of 14
2.5 Paragraph 70 of the NPPF (2019) states that windfall sites should only be included in the anticipated housing calculation if there is compelling evidence to suggest they are a reliable source of supply. Compelling evidence should be realistic having regard to (i) the strategic housing land availability assessment, (ii) expected future trends (iii) historic windfall delivery rates. Paragraph 4.17 of The Brentwood Local Plan Pre-submission Document (February 2019) and Housing and Economic Land Availability Assessment (2018) provides the basis for the projected supply of 410 dwellings on windfall sites. The allocation of windfall sites is based exclusively on past delivery records and has not had regard to either (i) land availability or (ii) the impact of future trends affecting the delivery of housing on windfall sites. In the absence of compelling evidence 410 dwellings should be discounted from the 'Allocation Total'.
2.6 Table 1 below provides a revised 'Allocation Total' for the plan period which correctly discounts (1) 'Completions 2016/2017/18' (2) 'Extant permissions' and (3) 'Windfall Allowances'. The Revised 'Allocation Total' in Table 1 has been formulated using the correct method defined in Paragraphs 22 and 70, and Page 66, Part (a) of the NPPF (2019).
[Table 1: see attachment]
2.7 Table 2 provides a revision to the housing trajectory for the plan period which appropriately commences in 2021/2020 [in line with the correct method defined in Paragraph 22 of the NPPF (2019)]. The delivery rates for DHGV has been reduced to reflect the likely rates of delivery for a strategic site of this kind. Based on empirical evidence undertaken by Savills on behalf of Barret Homes (see Urban Extensions - Assessment of Delivery Rates, October 2014) DHGV may only deliver up to 120 dpa. The figures contained in Table 2 below represents the highest expected yield pa. The expected delivery rate of up to 120 dpa is supported by observations of 78 urban extensions on greenfield sites. 32% of case studies had been located within the south east of England and are an accurate proxy for estimating expected housing delivery rates at DHGV. BBC has not provided any evidence to suggest that delivery rates will exceed 120 dpa and therefore the revised housing trajectory in table 2 should be 'material' when assessing the 5 year housing land supply and the overall 'soundness' of 'The Consolidated Changes'.
[Table 2: See attachment]
2.8 Short term: 'The Consolidated Changes' must identify a supply of specific and deliverable sites capable of providing 545 dpa in years 1 to 5. Table 1 demonstrates that the Plan would fall short in meeting LHN in years 1 and 2 by a significant margin (-429 and -274 dwellings respectively).
2.9 Long term: 'The Consolidated Changes' would fall short in allocating a suitable number of housing sites over the plan period by 3,177 dwellings (see Table 2).
Local Plan Legal Compliance
Significant cross boundary impacts
2.10 Section 33A of the Act and Paragraph 24 of the NPPF (2019) imposes a duty on BBC to cooperate with adjoining Local Authorities on issues that would have significant and/or cross boundary impacts on other areas. The duty imposed on BBC requires constructive and active engagement on an on-going basis. Cooperation between adjoining Local Authorities must take place before 'The Consolidated Changes' are submitted to the Secretary of State for examination.
2.11 DHGV is located within close proximity to the administrative boundaries of Basildon and Thurrock Council. Both Councils have objected to the allocation of 2,700 homes in previous consultations. The objections raised are very likely to intensify following the allocation of an additional 70 homes at DHGV. Basildon Council made the following objection during the March 2019 (Regulation 19) consultation:
"Basildon Council would like to seek assurances written into Policy R01(II) that it will be invited by Brentwood Council to become more involved in the detailed design and delivery of the new village.
This will ensure that the strategic and cross-boundary impacts covered by the Duty to Cooperate and raised during the Council's response to the Plan at Regulation 18 and 19 stages are managed effectively during the development's implementation stages (assuming it is considered sound), alongside the Basildon Borough Local Plan's own implementation. Delivery of DHGV will commence in 2022/23 at a rate of 100 homes per annum, climbing to 300 homes per annum by 2026/27. This seems overly optimistic given that the allocation is currently within Green Belt, requires masterplanning and will need to go through a planning application and elements of the condition discharge process before development can commence.
No evidence is provided as to how the housing trajectory has been developed. No evidence or any form of a development framework/ masterplan for DHGV explains how the proposed accelerated rate of delivery will be possible. The Plan and the Transport Assessment fails to investigate the possible impacts on Basildon's road and rail infrastructure arising from commuters or other road users choosing to access facilities within the Basildon Borough instead.
The need for new connections into Basildon was not mentioned as being necessary to make it sustainable. No evidence was present to demonstrate that DHGV's growth demands have been evaluated in combination with the projected demands from Basildon Local Plan. The Plan should not assume that such growth can just be absorbed by the nearby infrastructure and services in Basildon and investment through developer contributions".
2.12 Details of the other objections from neighbouring Local Authorities have been reproduced in Box 2.2, on page 9 of the SA Report Addendum (October 2019).
2.13 The objections from Basildon and Thurrock Council are clear indicators that there has been insufficient engagement with adjoining Local Authorities over important cross boundary issues. 'The Consolidated Changes' should not be adopted until all concerning Local Authorities have discharged their duties to cooperate [in addressing all the issues relating to DHGV] as required by the Act and NPPF (2019).
Unmet housing need
2.14 BBC confirm that adjoining Local Authorities are unwilling and unable to take any identified housing need from the Borough.
CONCLUSION
3.1 We therefore conclude that additional work is still required in order to make the 'The Consolidated Changes' 'sound' and legally compliant. BBC must increase the number of allocations for housing in sustainable locations and preferably near the urban area. BBC must address the Boroughs' short-term housing needs (5 year housing land supply) and long-term LHN for the entirety of the plan in order to be considered 'sound'. Therefore to address this matter we recommend that the Sawyers Hall Farm site (ref: 024a and 024b) is allocated as this site is available for development now. Table 2 (above) provides a 'best case' housing forecast and shows the greatest housing shortfall in years 1 and 2. Any delay in implementing DHGV in line with the revised housing trajectory (see table 1 and 2) would result in housing shortfalls in years 3 to 5 and potentially the remainder of the plan period. The planning for DHGV will require a substantial amount and the timely delivery of new infrastructure to address the impact of development and overcome the objections raised by consultees and adjoining Local Authorities. We have demonstrated categorically that the implementation of DHGV will not correspond to the Council's own housing trajectory. The Sawyers Hall Farm site would support the delivery of up to 450 new homes in years 1 and 2 and would contribute significantly towards helping BBC meet its local development needs and preparing a 'sound' Local Plan for timely adoption.
3.2 This report highlighted the risks posed by the current strategy in meeting the LHN over the period of the plan. 'The Consolidated Changes' have not been prepared in accordance with legal and procedural requirements set out in the Act and NPPF (2019). The policies contained within the plan have not been positively prepared, nor have they been justified, or if adopted would be effective in delivering enough housing to meet the Borough's Local Housing Needs (LHN). GL Hearn concludes that the plan [if not changed in accordance with recommendation to increase housing allocation closer to the urban area) would not be found 'sound' by the appointed Inspector.

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